People vastly underestimate how popular abortion is under certain circumstances, June 30, 2022.Republicans lose slight edge on the generic ballot, July 13, 2022.The next wave of this FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos poll will show whether this shift remains or whether Republicans have regained their edge since last month. Though, Republican advantages with redistricting make it unlikely that Democrats will hold onto the House. As of now, Republicans have lost their slight edge over Democrats on the generic ballot. Wade and recent mass shootings at Uvalde and Highland Park, this analysis suggests that abortion and crime/gun violence are issues motivating parts of Biden's 2020 base who were previously uncommitted to participating in the midterms. After those two issues, political extremism registers the third largest uptick in worry, but that issue has increased by a much smaller magnitude, only moving by 5 points. However, these “switchers” are less likely than the remaining uncommitted block of Biden supporters (58%) to say inflation is a problem.Īdditionally, since May 2022, abortion and crime/gun violence has increased the most as a worry among Democratic “switchers.” From the first wave to the third, Democratic concern about abortion increased by 27 points, and worry about crime/gun violence increased by 19 points. Democratic “switchers” are more likely to consider inflation a worry (48%) compared to people who have been Democratic voters all along (39%). 26% “uncommitted”).Ĭompare concerns about abortion to inflation, the main issue for most Americans, and it strongly looks like the repeal of Roe has pushed these voters into the electorate. Compared to Biden’s remaining uncommitted base, these Democratic “switchers” are also more likely to cite abortion as their main issue (35% among “switchers” vs. Still, of those who became certain Democratic voters in July, nearly three in five (58%) identify as female, and over two in five (44%) are people of color. Though, this development in the generic Congressional ballot does not mean Democrats are likely to hold on to control of the House of Representatives, considering Republican advantages in redistricting. Analysis of the FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos tracking poll suggests that following the Dobbs decision, a segment of Biden’s 2020 base who were previously uninvested in the midterms now say they are likely to vote for a Democratic candidate. Since May 2022, Republicans have lost a slight edge on the generic ballot.
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