I am referring to repeatedly betting on teams that are on extended winning streaks and repeatedly betting against teams that are on extended losing streaks. If you can find these ‘morphing teams’ quickly – those that are playing better or worse than their overall numbers indicate – there is money to be made. Philadelphia was a great bargain bet on the moneyline during this streak, because they were still being priced like an average hockey team when they were clearly improving and outperforming their overall season record. From January 8th to March 10th, the Flyers caught fire and went on a torrid streak, going 19-7 in 26 games during the two month span just before the season was halted. At the time, they were priced like an average to slightly below average hockey team. In contrast, you should be prepared to fade the better teams in the league if they happen to be struggling at the current point in time, which often makes them overvalued from a moneyline price perspective.Ī good example is the Philadelphia Flyers, who spent the majority of the season prior to the hiatus as an inconsistent team struggling to make the playoffs. Sometimes you have to be willing to bet on some of the worst teams in the league if they happen to be playing great hockey at the moment, leaving them undervalued in the betting markets. Isolate those instances and determine when teams find themselves in either a hot streak or cold streak. There are peaks and valleys that all teams go through during a lengthy 82 game regular season. NHL teams are not much different in that regard. As bettors and handicappers, we go through winning streaks and losing streaks. In this bettor’s opinion, one of the greater edges in the NHL involves focusing on a team’s current form rather than looking at their overall record.
Past results from recent seasons clearly indicate that the value lies with road teams in NHL betting. During the 2018-2019 season, 13 teams were profitable in their road games and once again only 9 teams showed a profit on home ice. To put this strategy into proper context, 18 teams turned a profit and were + units on the road, while only 9 teams were profitable at home in the current paused NHL season.
I will usually have more wagers on road teams than home teams on the moneyline, due to the higher win probability on quality road teams that usually provide exceptional moneyline price value. I look to exploit those market inefficiencies. They don’t usually adjust individual moneyline prices toward teams that have a good track record of success on the road. Oddsmakers tend to set their lines strictly based on power ratings and overall record. There are times when I have a particular game lined differently than the oddsmakers, by 10 to 20 cents, shading the moneyline price toward a road team if they have a strong record away from home. Playing at home doesn’t necessarily provide the same advantage in hockey as it tends to do in other sports. Louis Blues did in Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals last year, defeating the Bruins in Boston.
#Nhl 20 strategies series#
It isn’t by accident that we see many teams win clinching playoff series games away from their home rink, like the St. One of my key strategies in the NHL is isolating teams that play well on the road and looking for good spots on the schedule to back those teams.ĭuring the current NHL season that was paused due to the COVID-19 pandemic, 20 out of 31 teams had a record of. However, in many instances, the best teams in the NHL are priced like it when playing on home ice, and can be seen regularly laying -170 or more on the moneyline. That’s not saying home teams are never a good bet.
Home ice is routinely overvalued in NHL betting. I will be highlighting several of these betting strategies here in this article as we approach the return of NHL Hockey. I have been an NHL Hockey bettor and handicapper for the last decade, and I have used a variety of wide-ranging betting strategies that have been consistent money makers and profit producers during that time.
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